U.S Market (5th Dec. 2025)
For global investors following U.S. markets
1. Global Macro – Expansion Signals Hold, but Momentum Remains Limited
■ Global PMI (Nov): Manufacturing 50.3, Services 51.1
The global economy continues to operate in a slow-expansion regime.
The upside is limited, but the downside risk of recession has materially faded.
■ Inflation: Headline softens, but core remains sticky
The key friction is in services inflation, particularly shelter and wages.
This keeps major central banks on a gradual, not aggressive, easing path.
■ Global Liquidity: Turning the corner
Global M2 has been positive for 3 consecutive months, suggesting the world is transitioning out of its 2023–24 liquidity trough.
Historically, this improves risk-asset performance with a 3–6 month lag.
■ Oil: $78–82 range
Oil’s stability supports global disinflation while signaling still-moderate industrial activity.
2. United States Macro — “Cooling but Not Cracking”
(1) Today’s main event: the November Jobs Report
Market expectations:
- Nonfarm Payrolls: +140k to +155k
- Unemployment Rate: ~4.4%
- Wage Growth: 3.4–3.6% YoY
Interpretation
Fed officials have been consistently signaling “proceed carefully.”
- A soft print → strengthens case for a January rate cut
- A hot print → pushes easing toward March or later
Today’s report will likely define the tone of the December FOMC and shape short-term yield direction.
(2) Inflation & Policy Trajectory
- Core CPI nowcast: ~3.1%
- Core PCE: ~3.0%
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.75–4.00%
The Fed acknowledges disinflation progress but warns the “last mile” to 2% requires patience.
Market expectations have shifted from 4–5 cuts (early 2025 expectations) to 2–3 cuts in 2026.
This is a classic slow-normalization phase, not a rapid easing cycle.
(3) Bonds, Credit, and Equity Tone
■ Bond Market
- 10Y Treasury: 4.2–4.4%
- 2Y Treasury: ~4.1%
- 2s–10s Spread: +20–30 bps (mild steepening)
🔍 Analyst Interpretation
The curve’s re-steepening is important.
It signals:
- Recession fears are fading
- Inflation is cooling
- Growth is slowing, not collapsing
■ Credit
- IG Spread: ~110 bps
- HY Spread: ~380–400 bps
→ No systemic credit stress; soft-landing sentiment intact.
■ Equities
Supported by:
- Stabilizing earnings revisions
- Lower long-term yields
- Improving liquidity profile
→ Favors quality, large-cap, cash-flow-strong equities.
3. Policy Risk — December Tariffs and Fiscal Direction
- The administration is preparing a tiered tariff framework, likely impacting EV supply chains, batteries, solar hardware, and semiconductors.
- Fiscal policy remains expansionary, raising medium-term questions about Treasury supply and long-term yields.
- Potential tightening in immigration policy may keep wage inflation elevated in 2026.
Policy remains the key source of short-term volatility.
4. FX, Crypto, and Cross-Asset Signals
- DXY: trading around 103–104
- USD/KRW: holding in the 1,467–1,470 zone
- Bitcoin dominance: ~58%, signaling selective risk appetite rather than broad risk-on behavior.
5. Conclusion — “Cooling, Not Cracking”
The U.S. is navigating a delicate but stable soft-landing corridor.
Inflation is easing, credit remains healthy, liquidity is improving, and growth is moderating rather than breaking.
Investment stance:High-quality U.S. large capsDefense & infrastructureEnergy transportation & pipelinesCash-flow-stable growthSelective duration in bonds (short/intermediate)
Disclaimer
This content is not investment advice. Investors are responsible for their own decisions.