02 Dec 2025

U.S Market (3rd Dec. 2025)

For global investors tracking U.S. markets

Global Macro

Global PMIs (Nov): Manufacturing holding near 50, Services in the 51–52 range → global economy remains in slow but stable expansion.
Inflation pulse: Headline inflation continues to ease, but core inflation stays sticky in most major economies.
Global liquidity: M2 growth across major economies is positive for the 3rd straight month, providing a constructive backdrop for risk assets.
Commodities: Oil trading around $78–82, helping keep short-term inflation expectations anchored.

United States — Key Indicators + Market-Relevant News

1) Labor Market Ahead of Friday Jobs Report

Markets are positioning ahead of the November labor data:

Payrolls expectation: +140k–150k
Unemployment: edging up toward 4.4%
Wage growth: ~3.5% YoY

Narrative:
The Fed has reinforced its “proceed carefully” stance.
A soft report strengthens the case for a January rate cut, while a stronger report shifts expectations into March.

2) Inflation & Fed Path

Core CPI nowcast: ~3.1%
Core PCE: ~3.0%
Fed Funds Rate: 3.75–4.00%

The Fed acknowledges progress on inflation, but warns the “last mile” to 2% will be slow.
Markets now price 2–3 cuts for 2026, lower than earlier expectations.

3) Bond Market Tone

10Y Treasury: drifting in the 4.2–4.4% range
2Y Treasury: around 4.1%
Yield curve: Mild steepening (+20–30 bps) as recession fears fade.

Interpretation:
The curve’s re-steepening signals early-cycle normalization rather than stress.

4) Equities & Credit

U.S. equities trade near cycle highs, supported by stable earnings expectations.
Credit spreads:
- IG: ~110 bps
- HY: ~380–400 bps
  → Credit markets remain calm, reinforcing the soft-landing narrative.

Policy Watch

Markets await the administration’s tiered tariff framework later in December, likely targeting EV supply chains and select tech hardware.
Fiscal expansion continues, raising questions for 2026 long-term yields.
Potential tightening in migration policy may influence wage inflation in early 2026.

FX & Cross-Market Signals

DXY: trading near the 103–104 range as the USD cools.
Global risk appetite: steady but selective.
Crypto: Bitcoin dominance near 58%, showing preference for major assets over smaller tokens.

Final Takeaway

The macro environment remains softening but resilient.
Labor data and the Fed’s December communication will determine whether the easing cycle begins in January or later.
Quality U.S. equities, defense, infrastructure, and cash-flow-strong names continue to look best positioned into year-end.

(This content is not investment advice. Investors are responsible for their own decisions.)