This week's US Stock (8th Dec. 2025)

NVIDIA's been the belle of the ball for every portfolio pitch this year, and while it's earned its stripes, Korean investors like you are wise to seek edges beyond the obvious AI frenzy. With the Kospi up over 15% YTD amid export resilience but still sensitive to global trade frictions, I've pivoted to a less-trodden path: defensive growth with a demographic kicker. Drawing from our J.P. Morgan cross-border flows data and recent Morningstar/Bank of America scans as of December 6, 2025, my alternative pick is HCA Healthcare (HCA), the largest for-profit hospital operator in the U.S.

Why HCA Healthcare?

• Recession-Resistant Demand with Aging Tailwinds: Healthcare doesn't skip recessions—procedures and admissions hold steady even as discretionary spending wanes. HCA's network of 190+ hospitals and 2,400+ sites of care (spanning 20 states and the U.K.) benefits from an inexorable U.S. trend: 10,000 baby boomers turning 65 daily through 2030, driving inpatient volumes up 7.2% YoY in the first nine months of 2025. For Korean investors, this mirrors the "silver economy" boom back home (think Lotte's eldercare push), but with U.S. pricing power and lower regulatory hurdles than Korea's bifurcated system. It's a hedge against KRW volatility while tapping global longevity themes.
• Undervalued Amid Sector Noise: Trading at ~16x forward earnings (versus the S&P 500's 22x and healthcare peers' 18x), HCA's discounted 25% below Morningstar's $473 fair value estimate as of November 19, 2025. This stems from transient Medicare reimbursement pressures, but Q3 results crushed: revenues hit $17.7 billion (+12% YoY), EPS $5.12 (beat by 8%), and EBITDA margins expanded to 24.5%. Management's guiding $75-76.5 billion full-year revenue (7.3% growth) and $24.50-25.50 EPS, with share buybacks ($7.5 billion YTD) and a 0.6% yield underscoring confidence. Korean inflows into U.S. healthcare ETFs (up 18% net in Q4) signal rising interest, yet HCA's pure-play operator status keeps it off the radar of chaebol-style conglomerates.
• Performance Snapshot: YTD through December 5, 2025, HCA's up 28.4% (closing at $356.78), outpacing the S&P Health Care Select Sector Index's 12% gain. Over five years, it's compounded at 18% annually, with ROIC at 15%—elite for capital-intensive healthcare. Q4 catalysts include elective surgery backlogs clearing post-holiday and potential ACA expansions under a steady policy environment.

Key Risks to Consider

Regulatory tweaks (e.g., drug pricing reforms) could squeeze margins short-term, and labor costs remain sticky at 45% of expenses. Valuation isn't dirt-cheap, so cap exposure at 7-8% of your U.S. sleeve, perhaps alongside a staples play like Costco (COST) for broader defensives. Watch for Q4 earnings on January 24, 2026, which could ignite a re-rating.

In essence, HCA's a structural winner in America's $4.5 trillion healthcare machine—profitable, scalable, and overlooked amid tech's glare—offering Korean allocators steady compounding without the AI hype tax. If healthcare's not your flavor, I could drill into consumer staples for agribusiness exposure tied to Korea's food imports. What's your take on defensives versus cyclicals?

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