30 Nov 2025

Korean Market (1st Dec. 2025)

1. Global Macro

Global markets enter December with a strong year-end rally narrative, supported by easing inflation and improving liquidity conditions.
Major central banks continue signaling they are moving closer to an early-2026 coordinated rate-cut cycle.
Global M2 liquidity expanded again through November, improving risk appetite across export-driven Asian markets.
Commodity prices remain stable: oil is range-bound, industrial metals show mild strength alongside Asia’s improving manufacturing outlook.
Volatility indices remain low, reflecting stronger investor confidence going into year-end.

Recent U.S. data supports a soft-landing trajectory: consumption slowed modestly, but labor markets remain steady.
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates unchanged at the December FOMC, while investors increasingly price in a first cut in early 2026.
U.S. equities remain bifurcated: megacap tech benefits from easing yield pressure, while cyclical/value sectors show mixed performance.
The dollar continues to weaken gradually → supportive for Asian FX and Korean equities.

Markets continue reassessing the policy direction of a Trump return, especially around China tariffs, technology export controls, and U.S.–China supply-chain security.
Expectations of higher tariffs in 2026 add uncertainty for CNY, resulting in KRW volatility.
Expanded semiconductor/AI export-control frameworks remain on the table — structurally positive for Korea’s chip and high-tech ecosystem.
G2 tensions increase geopolitical risk premium but simultaneously accelerate multinational supply-chain moves out of China.

United States

ISM Manufacturing: still below 50 but improving → suggests early-cycle stabilization.
Core PCE: tracking toward the 2.6–2.7% range.
10Y Treasury: holding at lower levels, easing financial conditions.
DXY: remains in a mild downtrend.

Korea

Exports: November data shows strong double-digit growth in semiconductors and EV components.
KOSPI Forward P/E: elevated → favors selective positioning.
KRW: strengthening on weaker USD flows.
Korea 10Y yield: continues to decline → corporate financing environment improving.

A combination of global liquidity improvement, U.S. soft-landing expectations, G2 supply-chain realignment, and strong export momentum positions Korea favorably entering December.
Semiconductor recovery remains the dominant driver, supported by AI-related demand and ongoing U.S. restrictions on China’s advanced chip production.
Foreign inflows have remained firm through November as KRW strengthened and U.S. yields eased.
With valuations high at the index level, opportunities remain sector-selective, particularly in:
- AI/memory semiconductors
- EV & battery supply chain
- Industrial automation
- Financials benefiting from declining yields

(This content is not investment advice. Investors are responsible for their own decisions.)